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“The positive earnings factors have been strong generation (5 per cent above average) and higher retail energy prices (up 11 per cent on full-year 2022).

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There were four key drivers - two positive and two negative. Its forecast for ebitdaf is $782m, up 10 per cent on 2022.

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Harapaki is now expected to produce its first power in October this year and achieve full power in September next year.įorsyth Barr said that while it was wet, it was not windy, and wind generation was 33 per cent below average, the lowest June month and second lowest on record. Meridian (August 29) also broke hydro generation records, but that did not translate into earnings.Ĭyclone Gabrielle created some significant challenges for Meridian’s Harapaki wind project, which the power company said had lost about three months due to the cyclone. “These factors have combined to produce a record earnings year, with our revised ebitdaf estimate of $820m, up 39 per cent on the record-setting 2022 year,” Forsyth Barr said. While Mercury’s fourth-quarter generation was not a record, it was 34 per cent above average.ĭuring the year, Mercury fully commissioned its Turitea wind farm and it has just completed a full 12 months with the Trustpower retail acquisition. New Zealand’s run of bad weather has at least benefited the power companies, Photo / Michael Craig And it could have been more, with unable to generate and therefore spilling a further 1025GWh of water.” “Hydro generation was a new record, totalling 5209GWh. The broker said it had been a record-breaking year on several levels.

“Slightly higher than forecast generation volumes and stronger than expected financial sales pricing has lifted our 2023 ebitdaf forecast $25m (up 3.1 per cent) to $820m, and $25m above guidance,” Forsyth Barr said. Mercury (August 21) has capped 2023 with another quarter of strong hydro generation. “That has enabled record low thermal generation and a materially lower cost of generation,” Forsyth Barr said. Record hydro generation of 874GWh capped a record 2023, with hydro generation 34 per cent above average. Key features of the fourth quarter’s operating statistics were the strong hydro generation numbers and strong commercial electricity pricing. “Whilst we maintain our view that the current dividend is unsustainable when Kupe earnings start declining, positive earnings momentum is easing the dividend downside risk and we believe it is more than priced into the share price,” the broker said. Genesis Energy (August 24) has had a strong finish to 2023, with favourable commercial pricing outcomes and record fourth-quarter hydro generation lifting Forsyth Barr’s 2023 ebitdaf forecast by $10m to $532m.

Singh said the possible closure in 2024 of the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter - which consumes about 12 per cent of the nation’s power - was now less of an “elephant in the room” as some of the bigger generators sought other sources of demand, helped along by the Government’s push to decarbonise the economy.

“The companies are being seen positively at the moment from that perspective, but also for the developments that they are doing for renewables.” “It’s been at record levels for the North Island - particularly for Mercury, because of the Waikato catchment,” he said. “We have obviously had really good hydro conditions. “The beauty of the power companies, unlike some of the other companies, is that they provide monthly operating statistics as to how they are going, so there are never any surprises by the time August results roll around,” said Mohandeep Singh, senior research analyst at Craig’s Investment Partners. The high rainfall has filled the hydro lakes - which act as a giant battery for the electricity grid - keeping wholesale prices low.Īnd companies with fossil fuel-burning thermal assets - Genesis and Contact - have been able to rely more on their hydro stations, which are cheaper to run. New Zealand’s run of bad weather has at least benefited the power companies, which are due to report their results next month. Mercury derives much of its hydro power from the Lake Taupō catchment, in the Waikato.

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